A founder told us last year that his business was “worth 15 times EBITDA, because that’s what the sector trades at.” He had read it in a regional multiples table. The number that came back from real buyers was closer to six. He was not being lowballed. He was reading the wrong table.
This is the most common valuation mistake we see in the GCC, and it costs founders months. The multiples published in industry reports — including the widely cited KPMG GCC tables — measure large, listed companies. Your privately held business is not one of those, and buyers price it on a different scale. This is a reference for the scale that actually applies to a private GCC business going to market in 2026: what the bands really are by sector, why they sit below the headline numbers, and what moves you within them.
The headline multiples are for companies you’re not competing with
KPMG’s Industry Multiples in the GCC is the most-cited regional benchmark, and it is a good dataset — for what it measures. As of 31 December 2024, its mean EV/EBITDA multiples for listed GCC companies looked like this:
| Sector (listed GCC) | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|
| Education | 20.5× |
| Healthcare | 19.3× |
| Hospitality | 16.0× |
| Energy | 14.5× |
| Transport & Logistics | 13.3× |
| Utilities | 11.8× |
| Telecommunications | 6.6× |
Source: KPMG Lower Gulf, Industry Multiples in the GCC, Q4 2024 (mean of large listed GCC companies, free float ≥20%, as of 31 Dec 2024).
Read the screen, not just the numbers: these are listed companies with at least 20% free float. They are large, audited to listing standard, liquid enough to sell a stake in an afternoon, and diversified across customers and management. A buyer pays up for all of that. A privately held SME has none of it — and that is exactly why the multiple resets downward when the business is private.
The private-company discount is the gap
Valuation theory has a name for most of that gap: the discount for lack of marketability (DLOM). You cannot sell a private company the way you sell a listed share, so its value is marked down. Restricted-stock and pre-IPO studies, and Aswath Damodaran’s work on illiquidity at NYU Stern, put the discount for closely held private companies broadly in the 20%–40% range, and wider in thinly traded cases (Damodaran, Estimating Illiquidity Discounts).
On top of marketability sit two more reductions that hit smaller businesses hardest: a size discount (smaller earnings streams are riskier and attract fewer buyers) and company-specific risk — customer concentration, owner dependence, thin management, lumpy revenue. Stack those on a listed multiple and the headline number falls by half or more before a serious buyer will write it down in a letter of intent.
What private GCC businesses actually sell for, by sector
These are the bands we screen against — built on global SME transaction data, sized for the privately held companies that actually transact in the GCC, with regional comps confirmed case by case. They are the same bands behind our business valuation calculator.
| Sector | Primary basis | Realistic private band |
|---|---|---|
| Software / SaaS | Revenue / ARR | 3.0×–7.0× revenue (to ~10× at 40%+ growth) |
| IT services | EBITDA | 5×–8× EBITDA |
| Healthcare & clinics | EBITDA | 5×–7× EBITDA |
| Professional services | EBITDA / SDE | 5.5×–8× EBITDA (or 2.5×–4× SDE) |
| E-commerce & retail | EBITDA / SDE | 3×–10× EBITDA (or 2×–3.5× SDE) |
| Restaurants & F&B | EBITDA / SDE | 4×–6× EBITDA (or 2×–3× SDE) |
| Logistics & transport | EBITDA | 7×–8× EBITDA |
| Manufacturing | EBITDA | 5×–6× EBITDA |
Fiducia Adamantina sector bands. A range, never a single number; a multiple is an opening reference, not a fact about your business.
Hold the two healthcare numbers next to each other. The listed GCC healthcare multiple is 19.3×. The realistic band for a private clinic group is 5×–7×. That is not a contradiction — it is the entire point. A listed hospital operator and a three-clinic group are different assets to a buyer, and the 5×–7× band is the one a private owner should plan around.
Where SaaS and small owner-run businesses differ
Two sectors break the EBITDA default. Software and SaaS are priced on recurring revenue, not current profit: private SaaS companies have recently transacted around a median of 4.8× ARR (bootstrapped) to 5.3× ARR (equity-backed), with high-growth businesses (40%+) reaching 7×–10× (SaaS Capital, January 2025). And the smallest owner-operated businesses — where the founder is the operation — are screened on seller’s discretionary earnings (SDE) rather than EBITDA, because “profit” only exists once you’ve paid a market-rate manager to replace the owner.
What moves you inside the band
The band is the sector. Where you land in it is your business. Five factors decide it:
- Size. Larger, more durable earnings sit at the top of the band; sub-scale businesses at the bottom.
- Growth. A business growing 30% a year is a different asset from a flat one in the same sector.
- Margin quality and durability. Defensible, normalized margins beat a one-off good year.
- Customer and owner concentration. If your top client is 40% of revenue, or the business stops when you stop, buyers discount hard. This is exactly the work an exit readiness scorecard surfaces before a buyer does.
- Recurring vs one-off revenue. Contracted, repeatable revenue is worth more than project income.
From multiple to money: the part founders skip
A multiple gives you enterprise value. It is not what reaches your account. To get to equity value — your actual proceeds — you subtract net debt, adjust for a normal working-capital level, and then account for anything held back in escrow or deferred into an earnout. Two businesses with the same 6× headline can pay out very differently once the net-debt bridge runs. Our valuation calculator builds the indicative enterprise-value range and runs the equity bridge, so you see the number that matters.
If you are reading this because you are weighing a sale, the multiple is the start of the conversation, not the end of it. The defensible range, the position within the band, and the bridge to net proceeds are what a buyer’s analyst will argue about — and where sell-side M&A advisory in the UAE earns its fee. Screen your own indicative range first, then pressure-test it before you anchor a process on a number you read in a table built for someone else’s company.
Methodology and sources
Listed GCC multiples: KPMG Lower Gulf, Industry Multiples in the GCC, Q4 2024 (as of 31 Dec 2024). Private-company / illiquidity discount: Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern. SaaS / ARR multiples: SaaS Capital, January 2025. Private SME sector bands: Fiducia Adamantina, built on global SME transaction data with GCC comps confirmed case by case. Multiples are reference ranges, not valuations; every business should be assessed on its own facts.
Frequently asked questions
What EBITDA multiple does a small business sell for in the GCC?
Most privately held GCC SMEs change hands between roughly 4× and 8× EBITDA, not the double-digit multiples quoted for listed companies. Owner-operated businesses screened on seller's discretionary earnings (SDE) tend to clear lower still — on the bands we screen against, around 2×–4× SDE. The exact figure depends on size, growth, margin durability and how dependent the business is on the owner.
Why are the multiples I see online so much higher than what buyers offer?
Published multiples — including KPMG's GCC industry tables — measure large, liquid, listed companies. A private business is smaller, harder to sell, and more concentrated, so buyers apply a discount for lack of marketability (commonly 20%–40%) plus adjustments for size and risk. The listed multiple is a ceiling reference, not your sale price.
Is EBITDA or revenue the right basis for my sector?
EBITDA (or SDE for small owner-run firms) is the default for most profitable businesses. Revenue or ARR multiples lead in software/SaaS, where recurring revenue and growth matter more than current profit. The right basis is sector-specific — our valuation screen picks it for you.
Does the multiple I'm quoted equal the cash I receive?
No. A multiple produces enterprise value. What reaches your account is equity value — enterprise value minus net debt, adjusted for a working-capital target and any earnout or escrow. Two businesses with the same headline multiple can pay out very differently.